Chad, the RSF, and Instability: A 12-month Forecast

The border between Chad and Sudan does not reflect the ethnic and tribal boundaries of the region (source). The area has witnessed intermittent periods of violence since 2003. Indeed, at the time, the region’s central non-Arab communities rebelled against the Arab-led government in Khartoum (source). The current power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces, headed by Sudan’s President al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will aggravate tensions between non-Arab armed groups and Arab militias (source). The RSF originated from the Janjaweed Araba militias in 2013. They are commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – better known as Hemedti (source). Thus, Chad will likely face instability, particularly in its eastern regions with increasing rebel activity, ethnic conflicts, and RSF interference.