China’s military presence in Cuba: A 12-month Forecast

Sino-Cuban relations have strengthened in recent years. The two countries share socialist ideologies and have cooperated on several fronts. China has become one of Cuba’s main trading partners, providing economic support and investment in sectors such as infrastructure and telecommunications. In addition, China has extended lines of credit to Cuba, helping it to revive its economy. There are also reports that China is trying to establish an electronic listening station on the island, and even a military training facility (source). This reflects China’s efforts to increase its influence in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Key judgement 1. China and Cuba are likely to increase their political and economic cooperation in the next 12 months.

Key judgement 2. It is likely that China will continue to operate the Bejucal surveillance base in the next 12 months.

Key judgement 3. While is unlikely that China will open new surveillance bases in Cuba in the next 12 months, there are signs of efforts to strengthen ELINT capabilities on the island.

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