Russia and Algeria share a long-standing strategic partnership based on economic and military cooperation, since the latter’s independence in 1962. [source] Algeria is Russia’s second largest commercial partner in Africa and the two countries often engage in joint military exercises. While Algeria is amongst the main importers of Russian weaponry worldwide, Russia is the primary financier of Algeria’s armed forces. [source] Amid the War in Ukraine, the EU has turned to Algeria to fill the gap in energy exports left by Russian supplies. [source] Despite Algeria’s strengthened energy cooperation with European partners, Russia-Algeria relations have remained balanced.

Key Judgement 1. Despite heightening European concerns over Russia and Algeria deepening ties, it is highly likely that these two countries will strengthen bilateral cooperation over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is unlikely that Algeria will change its stance on the War in Ukraine over the next 12 months, in order to secure economic ties to the EU without antagonising Russia.

Key Judgement 3. The Wagner Group’s activities in the Sahel will likely become of further concern to Algeria over the next 12 months.