The African Union and Israel: a 6-Month Forecast

The historical antecedents, modern-day economic realities, and alignments with various global powers determine the various diplomatic arrangements between the African Union and Israel. Ghana and Kenya were the most outspoken in their condemnation of the recent Hamas invasion. Others bemoan Israeli aggression in Gaza and sympathise with the Palestinian cause. The analysis proffered here is that the African Union will continue to experience inter-state, as well as intrastate divisions over its bilateral relations with Israel.

Key Judgement-1. It is likely that the African Union’s economic rationality and politico-strategic interests will supersede ideological purity over the Israeli-Hamas conflict in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement-2. It is unlikely that Israel will enjoy full AU continental support for its re-occupation of Gaza within the next 6 months.

Key Judgement-3. It is likely that Israel will provoke regional tensions amongst the AU’s Al-Qaeda-affiliated networks within the next 6 months.