The Falklands Question: A 24-month Forecast

The Falkland Islands (in Spanish “Islas Malvinas”) are a British Overseas Territory located in the South Atlantic Ocean. In 1982 Argentina invaded and occupied the islands, and a British task force was sent to retake them. After a short but intense military campaign, the British forces successfully regained control of the islands. Today, Argentina continues to claim sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, and the dispute remains unresolved. Despite a solution that can be achieved through diplomatic efforts, there is no significant progress made in recent years. However, Argentina continues to seek negotiations about the Falkland Question.

Key judgement 1. It is highly likely that in the next 24 months, Argentina will continue to claim the Falklands as its own, criticising the British “occupation” of the islands, while calling for bilateral talks.

Key judgement 2. It is highly likely that in the next 24 months, the UK will continue to defend its sovereignty over the islands, opposing their return to Argentina while maintaining its arms embargo.

Key judgement 3. It is likely that in the next 24 months, the UN, as well as other international organisations, will continue to call for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, which involves the “decolonisation” of the islands by the United Kingdom.

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