Islamic extremism, regional security challenges, and the 26 July coup in Niger are prompting a rethink of US foreign policy in Africa. More so than in Mali or Burkina Faso, US policy will have to change in Niger in order to maintain US influence in the region and combat extremist groups in west Africa and the Sahel. Niger is an important partner for the US in security cooperation in the region, housing two drone bases and over 1,000 US troops. At the Financial Times Africa Summit on 17 October, US National Security Director for African Affairs Judd Devermont expressed US intentions to maintain pragmatic relations with Niger.

Key Judgement 1: The US will likely make concessions to Niger’s junta in the next 6 months in order to combat worsening regional security issues in West Africa and the Sahel. 

Key Judgement 2: The US will likely not draw down their military presence in Niger over the next 6 months due to the importance of US assets and strategic location of Niger to the Sahel.

Key Judgement 3: Niger will likely rely on the US for economic and regional stability in exchange for continuing to facilitate US troops and bases as ECOWAS and EU sanctions worsen over the next 6 months.