Venezuela vs Guyana over Essequibo: A Situational Assessment

Venezuela has announced a consultative referendum on the Essequibo region for 3 December, which intends to make it a federal state and grant its inhabitants citizenship (source). Venezuela and Guyana both claim the region and their relationship has historically been tense (source). This dispute gained relevance in 1966 with the Geneva Agreement, a treaty stipulating that the parties undertook to find a practical, peaceful and satisfactory solution to the dispute. In recent years, tensions intensified when Guyana discovered significant oil reserves in waters claimed by both countries. Since 2015, Venezuela has contested Guyana’s right to explore and exploit the region’s resources, leading to diplomatic friction (source). In 2023 the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in favour of Guyana (source), although Venezuela does not recognize it (source). The dispute has serious implications for both countries and regional stability.

Key judgement 1.  The referendum is unlikely to change Venezuelan policies in the next 6 months, independent of the result.

Key judgement 2. Venezuela likely will not use military force to contest the region in the next 6 months.

Key judgement 3. Both countries will likely retain their claims over Essequibo.

Rest of this post is for paying members only

Already have an account?  Log in

Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
£14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
£39.99
/ month
Free Plan
Free
Secret Plan
£14.99
/ month
Recommended
Top Secret Plan
£39.99
/ month
Already a member? Log in here

Table of Contents

Related Content

Secret

Central Asia Rebalances: Russia Down, China Up, US Absent

Location:_ Eurasia, Far East
Top secret

Finland: Russia’s next conquest? 

Location:_ Europe, Arctic
Secret

Israeli Abuses in Gaza: An Assessment

Location:_ MENA
Secret

Sanctions Evasion: The Steyr SSG 08’s path to North Korea

Location:_ Far East, Eurasia
Top secret

Mossad Covert Action in Iran: An Overview of Operations

Location:_ MENA
Secret

Bioweapons Targeting Crops: Assessing the Threat

Stay in the loop

Get a free weekly email that makes reading intel articles and reports actually enjoyable.

Log in

Stay in the loop

Join thousands of people receiving monthly reports on history alternating events that affect their business, investments and personal life.

Table of Contents

Contact

Contact

"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.