On May 15, an assailant shot and critically injured Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico while he was meeting supporters in the central town of Handlová. After being rushed to the hospital and stabilized, police detained the suspect. Fico, currently in his fourth term, has faced allegations of corruption during his tenure. He has also halted Slovakian military aid to Ukraine amidst its increasingly deadly conflict with Russia. Allegations have surfaced linking the suspect to both Ukraine and also Russian nationalist groups within Slovakia, raising questions about whether covert actions drove the assassination attempt.

Key Judgement 1. There is a realistic probability that Juraj Cintula was a foreign agent who aimed to assassinate Robert Fico on behalf of a foreign nation.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that the assassination attempt on Robert Fico will be used to justify further clampdowns in Slovakia.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that Slovakian internal politics will begin to fragment in the next 12 months as a result of the assassination attempt on Robert Fico.