“Let’s see what she can do.”

Executive Summary

The Japanese anti-espionage law will be a critical objective for Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leader Sanae Takaichi to demonstrate a harder stance against China both to business interests and internal LDP factions. Conversely, the rising Sanseito party will use it to consolidate its role in the anti-LDP opposition. Meanwhile, Beijing’s use of espionage charges to affect exit bans and opaque prosecutions against Japan-linked personnel in China does not show signs of letting up by year’s end. We also do not see indications that elevated Sino-Japanese cyber espionage competition will abate by 2026. 

Background: The Sino-Japan espionage war landscape spans the intelligence spectrum. It includes detentions on spy charges and cyber attacks targeting tech and national security interests going back at least 5 years. Following Prime Minister Ishiba’s stepping down, Sanae Takaichi was elected to LDP leadership. She vowed to rebuild the party and take a harder stance against China, which will involve an anti-espionage law. Ishiba’s complacency has left a vacancy in political momentum. Rising populist party Sanseito has seized on this momentum to cement its position against the LDP.