Counter the Dragon: US and Philippines Intelligence Sharing

The United States (US) and the Philippines have a long lasting relationship that dates back to the XIX century. Indeed, various treaties have been ratified over the years to formalize the diplomatic and military relationship between the two countries. For example, these include the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement of 2014. As a result, worried by China’s expansionism in the South China Sea, the U.S. are quickly stepping up foreign military financing to support the modernization of allied armies, all the while reinforcing their regional presence. Essential in this process are funding and intelligence sharing between the Philippines and the US

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that the US will increase its military aid to allies in the South China Sea.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that Manila will expand its network of alliances to increase its ability to deter China. 

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that the Philippines and the US will conclude an intelligence sharing agreement by the end of 2024. 

KJ-1. It is highly likely that the US will increase its military aid the Philippines in order to counter China’s ambitions in the South China Sea

1. The unprecedented funding of $500 million will be invested into the modernization of the Philippine Army (source). Moreover, the visit by U.S. Secretaries Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin showed strong U.S. support for Manila.
2. The entity of the military aid is a testimony of the steadfast US support to the Philippines (source). Similarly, $8.1 billion in foreign military financing to counter China had been approved by Biden in April (source).
3. Several allies expressed concerns about the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. Nevertheless, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured that changes of leadership would not affect the funding program (source). Besides, a bipartisan agreement in april approved a foreign military financing to the Philippines through 2029 (source)

KJ-2. It is highly likely that Washington will expand its network of alliances to increase its ability to deter China. 

1. The U.S. shares their concerns about China’s ambitions with multiple other countries. These include Canada, Japan, South Korea, the UK, the Philippines and India (source). The consolidation of U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific illustrates an emerging network of actors willing to mitigate China’s aggressiveness (source).  
2. The U.S. and Japan are building together military capabilities to swiftly respond to emerging crises (source).
3. The Biden-Harris administration particularly stressed the relevance of the Indo-Pacific region. For this reason, they undertook important steps to reinvigorate U.S. presence in the area. This included the consolidation of relationships with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines (source).

KJ-3. It is highly likely that the Philippines and the US will conclude an intelligence sharing agreement by the end of 2024. 

1. Washington and Manila have been relentlessly working to conclude a key intelligence sharing agreement. This would create the base for timely sharing of intelligence and military technology (source).
2. Under the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), the Philippines stands to gain advanced U.S. assets like weapons systems, satellite and drone surveillance, and missile systems. Both nations have emphasized that finalizing the deal is a top priority (source).
3. General Charles Brown visited several sites included in the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. This can be considered as an additional step towards the conclusion of the GSOMIA (source). All parties are committed to finalizing the agreement by the end of 2024. They also stated how the agreement is “long overdue” (source).

Analytical Summary 

Facing increasing China’s territorial ambitions, it is highly likely that the U.S. will increase their military aid to their allies in the region. These include the Philippines and other countries, all crucial in countering Beijing’s boldness in the South and East China Seas. Secondly, it is highly likely that Washington will continue strengthening the relationships with its allies to increase its ability to deter China. Finally, it is also highly likely that the U.S. and the Philippines will finalize the long-expected General Security of Military Information Agreement by the end of 2024.

Intelligence Cut-off Date: 17 August 2024