grey dynamics

The JASON Group: America’s Mad Scientists

February 3, 2021

Michael Ellmer

  This Grey Dynamics article explores the early beginnings and key accomplishments of the JASON advisory group – a collective of brilliant scientific minds who have been actively developing technology and finding solutions to problems within the government since the 1960’s.     The JASON Group   Science is pretty cool, but science with a “Top Secret” classification is exponentially cooler – as if it were science with a pair of Ray Ban Wayfarers and some boating shoes on, skirting…

Kenyan Backed Jubaland Forces Attempt to Invade Somali Town

February 2, 2021

Eren Ersozoglu

    Key Judgement     25th January, Jubaland forces and Somali National Army (SNA) troops clashed in the town of Bulu Hawo, in Gedo, Somalia. Jubaland forces retreated to the Mandera border region in Kenya.     The Jubaland forces are led by Abdirashid Janan, a fugitive with an international arrest warrant who escaped arrest in Mogadishu. Janan now resides in Kenya, where the forces receive training and equipment.     The security situation in the Gedo region is likely…

Future Impact of Task Force Takuba

January 28, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

  Key Judgements     KJ-1. TFT is unlikely to achieve full autonomy of Malian Special Forces within a 12-18 month period. Cooperation and guidance under European SOF is likely to remain due to low recruitment capability by Malian forces.     KJ-2. The COIN nature of TFT will likely reduce combat and cyber capabilities in the following 18 months, particularly of the Macina Liberation Front (MLF). A drop in online propaganda and combat capability, combined with the increased targeting…

Predictive Analysis: United States Airstrike Capabilities on Iranian Missile Cities

January 26, 2021

Michael Ellmer

    Key Judgements   KJ-1. There is a realistic probability that the Iranian state-run media reported capabilities of their underground missile installations is inaccurate for propaganda purposes.     KJ-2. In the case that the reported nomenclature of IRGC underground missile installations is accurate, it is likely that the most probable course of action for a US led offensive strike would be to destroy exit points for the installation’s missile launch bays.     KJ-3. In the case that…

Predictive Analysis of Conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia

January 25, 2021

Iñigo Camilleri De Castanedo

    Key Judgements     KJ-1. Armed conflict will highly likely continue and de-centralise in the following 6 weeks. Ethnic-driven civilian militias and the large unregistered amount of firearms make it highly likely that armed confrontations involving Tigrayan ethnicities will occur.   KJ-2. Conflict is likely to spread beyond Tigray’s borders into further Ethiopian and Eritrean territory. Ethnic and historic divisions broaden the range of actors involved in the conflict. This, together with increasingly individual confrontations, make it likely…

Turkish Drones Circling Somalia as Election Violence Looms

January 19, 2021

Eren Ersozoglu

      Key Judgements   KJ-1. Turkish drones are being deployed in Gedo, Somalia. The region has reached a critical stage in tensions between the Turkish-backed Federal Government of Somalia (FSG), and the Kenyan-backed Jubbaland state’s Kismayo officials.   KJ-2. Turkish trained GorGor special forces and special police unit Harama’ad mobilised in the Kenya-Somalia border region of Gedo. These developments come amid a delayed presidential election in Somalia, simultaneous with a deterioration of Kenya-Somalia relations.   KJ-3. Kenya Defense…