On 10 March, Russia dismissed Admiral Nikolay Anatolyevich as Commander in Chief of the Russian Navy. Anatolyevich has likely been replaced by the commander of the Northern Fleet, Admiral Aleksandr Alekseyevich Moiseyev. [source] Since February 2022, the Russian navy has blockaded Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. Between July 2022 and July 2023, the Black Sea Grain Initiative allowed Ukrainian grain to pass through the blockade. Russia however pulled out the agreement in July 2023. Between August and October 2023, Russia proceeded to bombard Ukrainian port infrastructure as talks of a revived deal broke down. In February and March 2024, Ukraine sank 3 Russian warships near Crimea using the MAGURA-V5, an unmanned surface vehicle (USV). The next 6 months are crucial strategically for the Russian navy as it navigates the new threat posed by Ukrainian USVs.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that Russia will be forced to reduce operations in the Crimean Sea Zone in the next 6 months unless it develops an anti-USV capability.

Key Judgement 2. It is unlikely that the Black Sea Grain Initiative will be revived in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly unlikely NATO will begin convoy operations in the Black Sea over the next 6 months.