Executive Summary

Syria has undergone dramatic changes since December 2024. Between February and March 2025, Syria entered a volatile new phase, one of the deadliest in the country since the beginning of its civil war in 2011. Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s new leader, faces simultaneous challenges: a violent insurgency by pro-Assad loyalists, ongoing threats from ISIS, and mounting regional rivalries. 

Internationally, the European Union is cautiously re-engaging with Damascus, lifting key sanctions and reopening diplomatic channels. However, regional security remains fragile. Southern Syria has emerged as a flashpoint for potential confrontation between Israel and Turkey, both of which are expanding their military and strategic presence in Syria. 

Despite the early diplomatic and military gains of the new government and the fact that more than 1 million displaced Syrians have returned, we do not see a peaceful landscape for the country in the coming months. The situation remains uncertain, and unresolved internal and external tensions threaten to destabilise the fragile post-Assad landscape.