Executive Summary

The Venezuelan Government is repositioning its security services and reducing overt political repression, possibly in an effort to placate the United States. Though the sustainability of reforms remains uncertain, Miraflores has already announced the discussion of general amnesty for almost a thousand detainees and the closure of the internal surveillance service headquarters at El Helicoide.

These reforms began shortly after CIA Director Ratcliffe travelled to Venezuela to meet Acting President Delcy Rodríguez and representatives of the General Military Counterintelligence Directorate to discuss intelligence cooperation frameworks. They also coincide with the arrival of agency-related transport airframes to Maiquetia and press reports claiming that Langley is establishing a station in Caracas. 

Key Judgements

KJ-1. Miraflores Palace began restructuring its security apparatus in the wake of Operation Absolute Resolve; we cannot rule out as a motive an effort to better align with the United States’ interests and to placate the White House.

1. The Venezuelan Government in January announced the closure of the Bolivarian Intelligence Service and the Special Police Command headquarters located in the Helicoide, Caracas. [source]
2. That same month, three weeks after Operation Absolute Resolve, the National Defence Office was established as the newest organisation of the Venezuelan security apparatus. [source, source]
3. President Delcy Rodriguez appointed Gabriela Jimenez, a public official from the Technology Ministry without military background, as National Defence Chief in January. [source]

KJ-2. We expect the restructuring to result in reduced political repression from the Military Counterintelligence Directorate and the Bolivarian Intelligence Service, even if only in the short term.

1. As of this writing, under the new acting president, approximately 344 individuals detained for political reasons have been released from different holding facilities, according to preliminary estimates by the human rights organisation Foro Penal. [source]
2. The Venezuelan Government in late January announced the discussion of a general amnesty aimed at the release of at least 687 political prisoners detained at the intelligence services’ black sites in El Helicoide and Boleita. [source]
3. Several opposition figures have started to emerge from hiding after both the Bolivarian Intelligence Service and the Military Counterintelligence Directorate decreased their clandestine operations against domestic political targets in January. [source, source]

KJ-3. Langley almost certainly will establish a permanent presence in Caracas, solidifying a widely reported temporary operational footprint established to support Absolute Resolve.

1. A Grey Dynamics ground asset witnessed and recorded an agency-linked Pallas Air Hercules transport aeroplane arriving at Maiquetia International Airport during the second week of January. [source]
2. That same month, CIA Director John Ratcliffe met Acting President Rodríguez and senior General Military Counterintelligence Directorate officials in Venezuela. [source, source]
3. CNN reports that the CIA is planning to at least initially solidify its presence by establishing a station in an annex building on the embassy grounds in Valle Arriba, Caracas. [source]

Statement on Analysis

We have medium confidence in our assessments. While developments addressed in this report come from reliable sources, gaps in publicly available information may prevent our full understanding of the situation, especially the motives for the restructuring and the sustainability of the seeming reduction in political oppression. We cannot rule out the possibility that the Bolivarian Intelligence Service and the Military Counterintelligence Directorate are showing indications of repositioning their focus away from domestic political targets only as a means of political survival.

Our analysis partly relies on the assumption that Miraflores is bent on appeasing the White House after the capture of President Maduro and that CIA will follow its historical practice of establishing a permanent presence in countries in which it has reportedly facilitated leadership change, like in Afghanistan in the post-9/11 period after the routing of the Taliban.

One variable that could change the situation on the ground, and our assessment, would be any falling out between Caracas and Washington that would reduce President Trump’s influence over Miraflores Palace. Leadership changes, such as the replacement of the current acting president, would introduce a wild card variable into the calculus of the direction of the security services, their stand on political opposition, and Caracas’ receptiveness to a CIA presence.

Intel Cut-Off Date: 03 Feb 2026