On 29 November 2023, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted Indian national Nikhil Gupta for attempting to assassinate U.S. citizen and Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in cooperation with an Indian government official. The indictment followed India’s alleged involvement in the murder of the Sikh Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada on 18 June 2023, which provoked a diplomatic dispute between Canada and India. The alleged connection between Indian government officials and the assassination attempts shows how far New Delhi is willing to go to repress political dissidents.

Key Judgement-1: It is highly likely that the Indian government is behind the assassination attempts on Indian minorities in Canada and the United States.

Key Judgement-2: India’s Western partners will likely protest but not reevaluate diplomatic ties with India.

Key Judgement-3: India will likely attempt to assassinate more Sikh separatist leaders abroad.