On 24 January Kim Jong Un removed a massive monument to Korean reunification. Since the start of 2024, tensions have increased between the two Korean nations. On 16 January, Kim Jong Un announced that he would abandon the decades-long effort to reunify with South Korea. On 28 December 2023, Kim told his military to make preparations for war. South Korea with the US and Japan held a naval exercise on 17 January in response to NK’s provocative language. Ultimately, the coming 12 months will see North Korea bolster their military posture and foreign relations.

Key Judgement 1: It is highly likely that North Korea and Russia will deepen bilateral military relations over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2: North Korean conventional and nuclear capabilities will likely increase in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3: It is highly likely that North Korea will escalate tensions with the US and South Korea over the next 12 months.