Executive Summary

The United States’ humanitarian response to the earthquake in Venezuela includes establishing a substantial military presence in Vargas, including securing operational control at the Simón Bolívar International Airport and La Guaira Port. Since June, U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Air Force personnel have led activities at the airport’s control tower and runway facilities, while the U.S. Navy has assumed a central role in port operations and amphibious logistics. The U.S. Southern Command has confirmed the deployment of approximately 2,000 service members to Venezuela, indicating that Washington is conducting a large-scale and sustained military-supported humanitarian operation with significant command-and-control capabilities in the affected areas of Vargas and Caracas.

Available indicators further suggest that the current United States deployment extends beyond conventional humanitarian assistance and includes non-conventional units with special mission capabilities. Publicly Available Information confirms the presence of Force Recon Marines attached to the Maritime Raid Force, Joint Terminal Attack Controller-qualified Pararescue personnel, and unidentified Special Mission Units personnel operating alongside Venezuelan security forces in Vargas. Despite the robust presence of both foreign and local military forces, the security environment in Vargas continues to deteriorate. Reports from local civilians and ground sources indicate persistent looting and robbery, as well as armed interference in disaster relief activities around Vargas by Venezuelan security forces.

Key Judgements

KJ-1 President Trump’s response to the earthquake has allowed the Pentagon to establish a significant military presence in Venezuela and assert control over the country’s main airport and harbour in Vargas.

1. Specialised military personnel from the United States Marine Corps and Air Force have led operations in the control tower and runway areas of Simón Bolívar International Airport since June. [source, source, source]
2. According to public images released by the Department of Defence, the United States Navy took control of La Guaira Port as of July and cross-decked both the USS Fort Lauderdale and USS San Antonio. [source, source, source]
3. Furthermore, United States Marine Corps landing craft and hover boat teams were using La Guaira Port as a launching site for additional amphibious operations on the Vargas coastline as of July 16. [source, source, source]
4. Southern Command Chief Gen. Francis Donovan confirmed in July that at least 2000 United States service members are deployed to Venezuela, with some receiving promotions inside the main airport in Vargas. [source, source]

KJ-2. In addition to the overt presence of conventional forces and search-and-rescue teams. Washington has also deployed special mission-capable units in Vargas.

1. Agence France-Presse journalists photographed in July unidentified United States special forces personnel riding alongside a Venezuelan Military Police convoy in Caraballeda.[source, source, source]
2. The Pentagon released images in July showing a Pararescue operator wearing a Jolly Green patch and a lightning-bolt insignia on his helmet, suggesting he is also a Joint Terminal Attack Controller. [source, source]
3. Photographs disseminated in early July show Force Recon Marines attached to the Maritime Raid Force assisting the more conventional elements of the Littoral Combat Force deployed in Caraballeda. [source, source]

KJ-3 Nonetheless, we assess that looting and robbery are likely to continue degrading the security environment in the earthquake-stricken areas of Vargas.

1. Venezuelan security service personnel looted civilian property following the deployment of the U.S. military, according to footage recorded by local civilians as of late June. [source, source]
2. Looting and robbery reports persist inside Vargas, with earthquake victims and local journalists confirming a surge in criminality as of July. [source, source]
3. Three volunteer relief workers in Venezuela who spoke to Grey Dynamics in early July report having suffered multiple robbery attempts in Vargas, especially around Playa Grande. 
4. Videos filmed by American volunteers and British journalists shows the Venezuelan Armed Forces are threatening or interfering with search and rescue efforts in La Guaira. [source, source]

Statement on Analysis 

Grey Dynamics assessment is based primarily on a limited number of ground-source reports, as well as Publicly Available Information, including unclassified imagery made available to the public by the U.S. government and media reporting. While the available indicators strongly support the assessment that the United States has increased its military footprint in Vargas following the earthquake under humanitarian assistance justifications, the exact extent of its operational control over Venezuelan infrastructure remains difficult to determine. Additionally, the command relationships and rules of engagement of specialised U.S. units deployed to Venezuela are unknown to us, as is the nature of any formal agreements governing their interaction with Venezuelan authorities. Washington’s long-term plans for the enhanced military presence also remain outside of the realm of publicly available information. Reporting on looting and interference with humanitarian operations is corroborated by multiple sources, but remains geographically limited and may not be representative of the overall security environment across Vargas. 

Intel Cut-Off Date: 15 July 2026