The recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has resulted in significant displacement and demographic changes. International actors, including the U.S., EU, and third-party peacekeepers, have shown a commitment to supporting humanitarian aid efforts and diplomatic engagement. Azerbaijan’s military actions and rhetoric, coupled with legislative pressure and signals of potential peace agreements, indicate a complex geopolitical landscape with ongoing efforts to address the conflict.  The following intelligence report assesses the likelihood of the implementation of an international monitoring mechanism in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s potential fortification of reclaimed territories, and the prospects for diplomatic resolution in the region.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that there will be the implementation of an international monitoring mechanism in Armenia and the region of Nagorno-Karabakh in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. Azerbaijan is likely to fortify reclaimed territories. Deterring attacks from Armenian forces or affiliated groups in the next 12 months, led to further tensions in the region.

Key Judgement 3. Azerbaijan and Armenia will likely seek a diplomatic solution to the conflict in the next 12 months.