There has been a notable rise in Russian espionage activities in Poland. Poland’s support for Ukraine during the ongoing conflict is the rationale behind this rise. Further, Polish Intelligence agencies have been working to dismantle Russian Espionage rings inside of the country. Polish government agencies have also been working to use and develop new technologies aimed at increasing their surveillance capabilities. With increased Polish support for Ukraine during the conflict being likely both Russian espionage and Polish counter-espionage attempts are on a trajectory to increase. 

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that Poland will increasingly counter Russian espionage operations through the detention of foreign agents.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that Russian espionage operations aimed at destabilising Poland will increase in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that Poland will continue to develop its counter-intelligence capacity and increase the use of surveillance technology in the next 12 months.