Executive Summary

The Thailand-Cambodia border flashpoint is rapidly evolving, with the former conducting a large-scale counter-offensive involving all branches of its military. Thai forces successfully overran Cambodian positions at Phu Makkhuea mountain, while light infantry and armoured assets made significant gains across multiple sectors along the border. The Royal Thai Air Force is on the verge of achieving airspace dominance and has demonstrated advanced combat capabilities, such as recent precision strikes using fighter jets and unmanned airframes. 

The Cambodian Royal Air Force operational capabilities remain minimal, limited to transport helicopters and surveillance drones, with no effective fighter interception capability. The Phnom Penh Royal Army is compensating for this handicap by focusing on entrenched defensive positions and indirect fire tactics from border outposts. Satellite imagery shows a build-up of hardened positions near the Phnom Prasitth and Chong Bok, which we assess is the Cambodian frontline. We expect Cambodian forces to continue firing Russian BM-21 Grad and Chinese Type 8 rockets over Thailand as part of their attack plan.

Image Sourced From: Sgt. Maria Henderson