Executive Summary

Washington is likely using counternarcotics as a pretext to apply military pressure on, if not prepare for actual conflict with, Venezuela to affect regime change. The South American nation is not a significant source of cocaine or fentanyl for U.S. markets, and the U.S. military buildup and activities near Venezuela are inconsistent with historical counternarcotics operations by the U.S. and other nations. U.S. President Trump continues to vocalise his desire to see the end of Venezuelan President Maduro’s rule, and we cannot rule out the possibility that the military buildup and accompanying exercises are designed to spur an internal movement in Caracas to remove Maduro. The expanding U.S. military activity in the Caribbean may be aimed, at least in part, at reaffirming dominance in the Western Hemisphere, but is likely to spur pushback from Russia and, possibly, China and Iran.