Executive Summary

As the conflict with Iran passed the one-month mark and entered into an unsteady ceasefire, there was widespread concern about an interceptor missile shortage, given their unsustainably high rates of deployment by U.S. and Israeli forces and allies in the region. As late as March, some observers went so far as to say that stocks could run out within a month, while President Donald Trump claimed to have an ‘unlimited’ supply. 

There is evidence that stockpiles of the most expensive guided munitions have run low, especially on the Israeli side, with some systems likely exhausted within the next month, should the current ceasefire falter and the conflict resume. U.S. munitions have been reallocated from other theatres, which suggests a relative ‘shortage’ that is likely to compromise security in other strategic areas, especially Ukraine. More generally, the concerns over interceptor stockpiles, whether valid or not, have fueled strong investment in improving industrial capacity, which will very likely put pressure on already thin supply chains and shift procurement priorities away from other systems.