Executive Summary

We assess that joint Israel-US attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow are highly unlikely to have deterred Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. We expect Iran to continue pursuing its enrichment program, first by repairing the damage. Additionally, we are not seeing any indications that Iran’s ongoing retaliations against perceived spies and dissenters within its country will abate. Also, Tehran’s activation of covert, retaliatory cells in Western countries remains a plausible scenario. While Israel emerged as the winner in the short conflict, it remains highly dependent on US support to maintain its posture in the Middle East, and we expect bilateral collaboration to intensify.

Background: The “12-day war” in June 2025 between Israel, the United States, and Iran began with Israeli airstrikes targeting multiple key Iranian nuclear and military facilities. In response, Iran sent hundreds of ballistic missiles targeting key cities in Israel. The US launched air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities using heavy GBU-57 bunker buster bombs to destroy underground uranium enrichment infrastructure. After intense fighting and mounting casualties, a ceasefire took effect on June 24; however, tensions remain.

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