Executive Summary

Iceland’s overall security continues to be heavily impacted by climate change. Its position in regards to the Arctic is no different. Approximately 70% of the infrastructure in the Arctic will be affected by permafrost thaw by 2050. Reykjavik’s Arctic view is shaped by its lack of a military and rising Russian and Chinese activity. It relies on NATO and the U.S. to secure critical infrastructure and its airspace. Thus, this dependency also extends to Arctic matters. 

Iceland has been a collaborative, albeit quiet, participant in coordinated matters among invested parties in the Arctic. It has not issued a comprehensive Arctic policy since 2021, when it chaired the Arctic Council. We assess that climate change, Russian and Chinese activity, and a need to continue–if not strengthen–defence cooperation with key allies will remain key drivers for Reykjavik’s decisions, policies, and actions regarding the Arctic.