Executive Summary

Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine. The related use of hybrid tactics against Arctic nations that are members of NATO further heightens tensions in the already volatile Arctic region. Moscow is likely to continue, if not increase, its reliance on hybrid operations. Including cyberattacks and misinformation campaigns, to undermine Western adversaries and maintain influence in the region. Over the next 12 months, Russia is likely to prioritize its military capabilities in the Arctic. Enhance its Northern Sea Route (NSR) for energy exports, and deepen its economic collaboration with China. Also, it likely will expand its nuclear activities, raising environmental concerns around the globe.