Arctic Forecast 2026: United Kingdom

Executive Summary

The United Kingdom, though not an Arctic state, likely will deepen and broaden its engagement in the region through 2026 as it transitions from episodic engagement to a more established, long‑term Arctic role. This will primarily come through defence deployments, energy partnerships, and economic agreements to secure itself as a key player. 

The United Kingdom considers itself ‘’the nearest neighbour to the Arctic’’ and its interest in the region has risen in recent years as geopolitical tensions there have increased. Also, the UK’s Strategic Defence Review in June 2025 assessed that it is likely that the Arctic and the High North will be free of ice each summer by 2040, and improved accessibility that will make the region even more important to London in the years to come. 

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Eirini Kongkini

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