Executive Summary

With the frontline in Ukraine effectively stagnant, Moscow increasingly views the Baltic states as a key battleground in its confrontation with the European Union and NATO. All three states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—are NATO members. As such, any military action by Russia against them would trigger the alliance’s collective defence clause. Russia, therefore, employs hybrid warfare tactics against the Baltic states to erode national security, test European and NATO resilience, and reduce support for Ukraine while attempting to maintain plausible deniability. 

Russia has employed hybrid warfare tactics against the Baltic states for decades in attempts to gain influence there. As tensions with NATO continue to rise, Moscow has intensified its efforts in this area. [source] 

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