Executive Summary

We expect Beijing to continue building its presence in the Arctic along the trajectory seen in 2025, largely through scientific expeditions and the leveraging of a newly uncovered trade route. China’s research in the Arctic almost certainly will continue to be driven by its military-civilian dual-purpose doctrine. Meanwhile, Sino-Russian cooperation will likely continue to underpin Beijing’s expanding activities in the Arctic through the year.

Key Judgements

KJ-1. Beijing in 2025 rapidly expanded its presence in the Arctic through scientific expeditions and innovative trade routes; we do not expect this trend to change in 2026.

1. Throughout 2025, China has significantly expanded its use of the Northern Sea Route, completing 14 container ship voyages between Europe and Asia. A significant increase from 11 voyages in 2024 and seven in 2023. [source]
2. Additionally, in October 2025, Xinhua reported that a Chinese container ship completed its maiden voyage along a new, 18-day express route to Felixstowe, UK. That circumvents Russia’s northern coast, halving the usual transit time from China to Europe. This was made possible due to the Arctic thaw.  [source, source, source]
3. Furthermore, China’s premier icebreaking vessel, the Xuelong 2, returned to Shanghai in September 2025 after completing its largest Arctic Ocean scientific expedition. Which included 100 Chinese scientists and three other ships—the Jidi, Shenhai-1 and Tansuo-3. [source]
4. In September 2025, China claimed a major Arctic exploration milestone after conducting its first manned deep-sea dive in the Arctic. This follows China’s expanded maritime presence in the region; this summer alone, Beijing dispatched a fleet of five research vessels to the region. [source, source]

KJ-2. China’s research in the Arctic almost certainly will continue to be driven by its military-civilian dual-purpose doctrine.

1. The Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies, in September 2025, published a report identifying China’s activities in the Arctic as having a dual-use dimension. They highlighted China’s 2020 edition of the Science of Military Strategy textbook, laying out that for Arctic research, “military-civilian mixing is the main way for great powers to achieve a polar military presence.”  [source]
2. Newsweek in April 2025 reported that Chinese research facilities in the Norwegian Arctic were carrying out dual-use signal intelligence research, including in the areas of Norwegian radar and missile tracking. The scientific research reportedly operated under a policy of “military-civil fusion” for dual civilian and military applications. [source, source]
3. As of March 2025, China’s largest military electronics conglomerate, China Electronics and Technology Group Corporation (CETC), ran two projects at the Yellow River Station through a subsidiary, the Chinese Research Institute of Radio Wave Propagation (CRIRP). [source]
4. Lastly, China’s permanent research stations in the Arctic include a remote sensing satellite ground station in Kiruna, Sweden and the China-Iceland Arctic Science Observatory in Kárhóll, Iceland. [source]

KJ-3. Sino-Russian cooperation will likely continue to underpin Beijing’s expanding activities in the Arctic through 2026.

1. A Newsweek article noted that in 2025, China was paying Russia hundreds of dollars to join its scientific expeditions to the Arctic. Since 2016, there have been four joint Arctic expeditions. A Chinese researcher stated that Moscow previously denied China’s permission to build research stations there, but “they need money because of the war in Ukraine”. [source]
2. A liquified natural gas tanker from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project arrived at a Chinese port on 6 September 2025. This is the third sanctioned tanker of its kind arriving at Tieshan LNG terminal in 2025. [source]
3. Last July, a Chinese diplomat based in the Russian city of Vladivostok stated that a joint Russia-China scientific exploration had sailed to the Bering Sea, right on the edge of the Arctic between Russia and Alaska. [source]
4. Following, China and Russia in July 2025 relaunched joint maritime research missions after a five-year hiatus, with 25 research scientists from both countries onboard the research vessel Akademik M.A. Lavrentyev. [source]

Statement on Analysis

We have high confidence in our key judgments, given the breadth and reliability of sources from think tanks, government publications, and reputable news sources. That said, our third key judgement relies on the assumption that relations between Beijing and Moscow will remain on a good footing and that Russia’s ongoing need for resources in the Ukraine war will not affect its commitments to work with China in the Arctic. We acknowledge that gaps in information available in open sources—such as any classified Chinese plans and intentions in the Arctic—could create blind spots in our understanding of the situation. Events that could impact our line of analysis include any deterioration in Sino-Russian relations or in China’s relations with NATO-member nations that so far have permitted China to maintain an on-the-ground presence in the Arctic—Norway, Iceland and Sweden. 

Intelligence Cut-off Date: 26 February 2026