Executive Summary

The United States is intensifying its military operations against the Cartel de los Soles, with recent public missions suggesting a strong focus on maritime interdictions and airspace dominance, and we do not see any indications that this focus will change. That said, the Pentagon and Langley are in a position to expand their operational pattern of covert action and intelligence operations in Mexico towards Venezuela, should they choose to do so. Meanwhile, as the Trump administration focuses on Cartel de los Soles as a hierarchical entity, complicit Venezuelan military officials are likely to exploit the cartel’s actual, decentralised structure to shield themselves from individual targeting by Washington initiatives.