Executive Summary

We assess that the enduring conflict between Russia and Ukraine has inflicted significant casualties on both parties, causing a rise in desertions that indicates a drop in morale. At the same time, we do not observe signs of a ceasefire or peace agreement in the near future. Both parties put out conditions that seem unacceptable to the other. That said, we assess that Russia is likely in a better position to sustain a prolonged conflict. It possesses a larger economy, population, mobilisation pool, military modernisation efforts, and ability to supplement ground forces with North Korean fighters.

Images Sourced From: KilledInUkraine, Euromaidan Press, Lviv OVA