Colombia and Venezuela had a tense and complicated relationship in recent years. While the relationship between Colombia and Venezuela remains strained, due to ongoing tensions over border security, drug trafficking, and political differences. However, the recent victory of a leftist government in Colombia led by Gustavo Petro may help improve relations between the two countries. However, it could damage Colombia’s standing with the United States (US).

Key judgement 1. It is highly likely that over the next 24 months, the government of Gustavo Petro will try to improve diplomatic relations with Venezuela, given the ideological similarities between the two regimes.

Key judgement 2. It is likely that in the next 24 months, Colombia and Venezuela will increase cooperation over a range of security issues such as immigration, border security, and armed groups.

Key judgement 3. It is likely that in the next 24 months, relations between Colombia and the US will deteriorate given the Petro government’s ideological rivalry with the US, as well as its attempts to increase ties with Venezuela.