Executive Summary

We assess that cybercrime’s well-documented growth in scale and sophistication is accompanied by its becoming increasingly industrialised and intertwined with intelligence operations, particularly in authoritarian states. As countries increasingly tolerate, support, or even hire non-state cyber actors to carry out operations aligned with state interests, it also blurs the line between them and state actors.

Additionally, the growing accessibility of malicious tools on illicit online marketplaces lowers the threshold for entry into cybercrime, allowing individuals and groups with less technical knowledge to carry out sophisticated attacks.

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