With over 40 ships, Russia has the largest icebreaker fleet in the world. It is the only country operating nuclear-powered icebreakers, with seven in operation and four under construction, though the bulk of its assets in this arena are diesel-powered. With over 24,000 km of Arctic coastline and about one-fifth of its territory lying within the Arctic Circle, Moscow sees the Arctic region as critical to its strategic military and economic interests.  (source, source). 

The impact of global warming increases opportunities for resource exploitation and maritime trade through the Northern Sea Route (NSR), the shortest shipping route between East Asia and Europe. Hence, regional competition between the US, NATO, China and Russia increases (source, source).

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that Russia will seek to maintain Arctic dominance by modernizing its icebreaker fleet in the next twelve months. 

Key Judgment 2. It is likely that NATO will increase efforts to beat back Russian ambitions in the next twelve months. 

Key Judgment 3. It is likely that Russia will continue to cooperate with China to sustain its dominance in the Arctic in the next twelve months.