Since the 6th of October 2022, a coalition of Haitian gangs has blockaded a key fuel terminal over cuts to fuel subsidies because of IMF advice. The island has stopped functioning as aid cannot reach the populace, resulting in a shortage of water. This shortage, combined with widespread gang rule and an outbreak of cholera, has caused a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Coupled with the already politically unstable situation in Haiti after the last president’s assassination has resulted in anarchy, thereby alarming the international community who have taken steps towards a potential intervention.
KJ-1: It is likely that the Humanitarian situation in Haiti will worsen because of the Gang blockades in the next 6 months.
- On the 6th of October 2022, a coalition of gangs blockaded a key fuel terminal in Haiti over fuel subsidies. (Source)
- Over 4 million people are facing acute food insecurity because of the blockade. (Source)
- The gangs utilise sexual violence in order to intimidate civilians near the blockade. (Source)
- An outbreak of cholera has killed 16 people so far and is likely to grow in scale. (Source)
- Widespread riots and looting are making basic resources scarce. (Source)
- Port au Prince is in a state of anarchy because of the gang blockade, with violence common. (Source)
- The gangs killed 12 people on the 22nd of October 2022. (Source)
KJ-2: It is highly likely international action will be taken either through direct action or through enabling local police to resolve the Gang blockade in the next 6 months.
- On the 7th of October 2022, the Haitian government allowed the country’s leadership to ask for international intervention. (Source)
- The United States (US) and Mexico seek United Nations (UN) support for a security mission to restore order. (Source)
- The UN Secretary-General called for a rapid reaction force to help the Haitian police. (Source)
- Neighbouring nations such as the Bahamas announced they would send troops if asked as part of a mission to Haiti. (Source)
- Because of the blockade, the UN sanctioned Jimmy Cherizier: the leader of the gang coalition, and the actor responsible for the blockade. (Source)
- Canada and the US are supplying the Haitian police with armoured vehicles. (Source)
- Canada held a second round of talks with Caribbean community leaders about the rapidly deteriorating situation. (Source)
- The United Kingdom has pushed for sanctions on gang leadership in Haiti. (Source)
- Taiwan announced it would supply Haitian police with bulletproof vests as help. (Source)
KJ-3: It is highly likely that Haitian political instability will increase because of the gang blockade in the next 6 months.
- The assassination of the Haitian President Jovenel Moise in 2021 put the country in a state of political instability. (Source)
- The government lacks legitimacy because of the leadership being unelected. (Source)
- Haiti is wracked by frequent political crises which are not resolved, resulting in public anger. (Source)
- Prime Minister Ariel Henry announced that elections are postponed indefinitely. (Source)
- Ariel Henry sacked the Chief Prosecutor after he accused the Prime Minister of having links to Moises assassination. (Source)
Intelligence Cut Off Date: 9th of November 2022