On 21 May, the US claimed that Saudi-Israeli normalisation was “within reach”. Since 2020, the US has encouraged Saudi Arabia to normalise relations and formally recognise Israel. As part of the trilateral treaty, the US has promised Saudi Arabia modern military hardware and assistance in developing a civilian nuclear sector. However, since Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023, normalisation talks have faltered. Since October 2023, Saudi Arabia, as a leader of the Sunni Islam world, has demanded that for talks to resume Israel must chart a clear path to Palestinian statehood. Israel however views an independent Palestine as a security threat and has stubbornly rejected Saudi proposals.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely Saudi Arabia’s hardened stance on Palestinian statehood is the most significant obstacle to normalisation with Netanyahu’s Israel.

Key Judgement 2. It is almost certain Iran’s nuclear posturing and destabilisation of the Middle East remains the primary driver of trilateral normalisation talks.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely Israel and Saudi Arabia will wait until the conclusion of the Israel-Gaza War to continue normalisation talks so that both parties can leverage their visions of Palestine’s future.