Executive Summary

Grey Dynamics, on 30 April, published a report regarding the terrorist attack in Indian administered Kashmir and the subsequent escalation in India-Pakistan tensions. Both sides have since traded missile strikes and drone attacks in a manner not seen since the 1999 Conflict. On 10 May, a tenuous ceasefire was announced, and both sides claimed violations by the other shortly after. Since then, Prime Minister Modi has publicly stated that New Delhi had “only suspended” its military operation. He also said that India’s military operation against Pakistan, is “India’s new normal” and that New Delhi will not tolerate “nuclear blackmail” or differentiate between “terror-supporting governments and terror masterminds.” [source, source]

While the ceasefire is unstable, both sides currently have the potential to claim victory and walk away from the conflict with national pride intact. However, several obstacles to de-escalation remain. In particular, the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) remains in “abeyance” with reports that India has already begun manipulating water flows, which Islamabad warns could lead to war. [source]

The analysis in our 30 April report contained the following Key Judgements:

• KJ-1. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan have the potential to evolve into a larger conflict, but it is unclear at this juncture if there are significant differences between this development and similar past conflicts that were ultimately resolved peacefully.

• KJ-2. New Delhi’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty raised the temperature of the situation, and is likely to keep the tensions high between India and Pakistan until it is reversed, but it may ultimately provide India with a bargaining chip in any negotiations.

• KJ-3. Other nations are attempting to de-escalate the situation between India and Pakistan, but the long-term effectiveness of their efforts is unclear.

Developments since 30 April require some calibration of our lines of analysis, as follows below.

Images Sourced From: ICIMOD, Koshy Koshy, PRO Defence Jammu

Statement of Analysis on KJ-1

1. Since our report, the situation has escalated into a high-intensity conflict, differing notably from previous similar ones.
2. In past India-Pakistan conflicts, both sides largely limited strikes to the disputed Kashmir region. In 2019, a single Indian airstrike hit a terrorist training camp at Balakot in Pakistan’s Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. This marked the first time since 1971 that Indian jets crossed the Line of Control (LoC). [source]
3. Since our report, Indian strikes have targeted Murid airbase in Chakwal, Rafiqui and Mushaf airbases in Punjab. Most significantly, the Nur Khan airbase in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad, was also targeted. [source, source]
4. Indian bases targeted by Pakistan include Pathankot airbase in Punjab and Bhuj air base in Gujarat. [source]
5. The fact that both sides have struck well beyond the region of Kashmir, including near large population centres and nuclear facilities in Pakistan’s Nur Khan airbase, means that the conflict is entering uncharted territory. [source]

Statement of Analysis on KJ-2  

1. India did not reinstate the IWT and seems unlikely to do so. Modi stated, “Terror and talks cannot go together; water and blood cannot flow together.” [source]
2. Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal reaffirmed on 13 May that “India will keep the treaty in abeyance until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.” [source]
3. India is currently unable to greatly impact Pakistan’s water flow because the IWT prevented it from developing storage dams. However, Pakistani officials have reported variations in flow in the Chenab river. New Delhi has also made moves to fast-track hydro-projects, which could massively affect downstream flows in the future. [source]

Statement of Analysis on KJ-3

1. U.S. President Trump on 10 May, in a social media post, was the first to announce a “full and immediate ceasefire” to the India-Pakistan conflict after overnight talks between U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Marco Rubio and Indian and Pakistani officials. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif celebrated the ceasefire as a “historical victory.” [source, source]
2. Trump followed this with another post saying he was “proud of the strong and unwaveringly powerful leadership of India and Pakistan” and that “I will work with you both to see if after a ‘thousand years’ a solution can be arrived at concerning Kashmir.” Trump’s equalisation of the two countries is a significant diplomatic victory for Pakistan and a downgrade for India. India has also historically vehemently rejected any international involvement in the Kashmir issue. As such, Trump’s offer could be seen as another diplomatic victory for Pakistan. [source, source]
3. Trump’s clumsy wording likely contributed to Indian discontent and the overall fragility of the ceasefire. However, it is unclear who violated the ceasefire first.

What Comes Next?

Despite multiple ceasefire violations, both India and Pakistan could conceivably claim victory without further escalation. Indian framing of victory could focus on the scale and accuracy of missile strikes and drone penetration, including over major Pakistani population centres and nuclear facilities. Pakistani framing of victory could focus on Pakistan’s ability to shoot down at least two Indian jets and strike back at India after absorbing attacks, the fact that Turkey and China came out unequivocally in support of Islamabad, and Trump’s statements. Extensive disinformation also allows both sides to conceal or undermine their relative losses. New Delhi has set a new, assertive precedent for responding to terrorist attacks whilst Islamabad has proved that it can match India, at least at this end of the escalation ladder. [source, source, source, source, source, source]

Further negotiations will be needed to ensure peace and will revolve around contentious issues like Pakistani terrorist groups and the IWT. New Delhi will likely seek major concessions from Islamabad regarding both. Given that General Asim Munir, an ideological hardliner, now leads the Pakistani army, this seems unlikely. Developments regarding the IWT do not bode well for negotiations either. [source]

In this most recent India-Pakistan conflict, both sides have struck harder and further into each other’s territory with more sophisticated weaponry than in past conflicts. Indian suspension of the IWT and targeting of Pakistani nuclear facilities as well as Turkey and China’s apparent support of Pakistan have set a new tone. Even if both sides feel they have done enough to claim victory this time, any future confrontation between the two will likely be much more dangerous. [source, source]

Intelligence Cut-off Date: 14 May