Executive Summary

India’s Research and Analysis Wing’s (R&AW) assassination program targeting national dissidents in the United States and Canada is backfiring into Deli’s diplomatic relations and affecting international cooperation between India and the West. Washington and Ontario this year confirmed suspicions of the foreign intelligence service’s involvement in covert action in North America as police investigations advance into indictments.

India and Canada have expelled each other’s senior diplomats as the situation intensifies, with shockwaves also reaching the United Kingdom, where R&AW’s second in command was declared persona non grata. Delhi and Washington relations are also strained, despite the background of previous Indian action on American soil. Among our assessments is the likely continuation of the assassination program on one side and attempts to block the covert action program on the other, while the diplomatic row roils in the background.