There was an increase in clashes in 2022 within the West Bank and Israel’s borders. Palestinian militants feel increasingly disillusioned with both a two-state solution and the Palestinian authority. With far-right elements becoming increasingly popular in the run up to Israel’s elections, it seems as if tensions will only increase. This is despite Israel recently making efforts to normalise relationships with its neighbours such as Lebanon.
KJ-1: It is highly likely that violent clashes will continue to increase in number in the West Bank over the next 6 months.
- The UN Middle East envoy claimed 2022 is likely to be the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank. (Source)
- Israel experienced a rise in terrorist attacks within the pre-1967 borders in 2022, undermining the sense of security of many Israelis; especially since many attackers were Arab citizens. (Source)
- Two Israeli soldiers were killed in early October 2022. (Source)
- On the 25th of October 2022, Israeli forces killed the leader of Lion’s Den in Nablus in a shootout. (Source)
- This firefight is one of the largest in weeks with the widespread use of explosives. (Source)
- Five Israeli soldiers were injured in a vehicular ramming attack on 30th of October 2022. (Source)
- There is growing anger at the Palestinian Authority from militant grassroots, resulting in them resorting to increased violent attacks. (Source)
- Despite Palestinians participating in the Israeli state for years, nothing has changed as of 2022, thereby leaving them more likely to resort to violence as they are disillusioned. (Source)
- The demolishment of multiple Arab houses in the West Bank amidst frequent Israeli settler attacks is pushing Palestinians to militant groups. (Source)
KJ-2: It is likely that due to increased violence in the West Bank, far-right elements in Israel will enjoy increased support in the next 6 months.
- US official analysis is that due to current events, far right parties will attain positions of power within Israel’s government in the upcoming elections. (Source)
- Far-right politicians such as Ben Gvir exploit the flareup of violence to win voters. (Source)
- Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu leads an alliance of far-right parties in the Israeli elections. (Source)
- Netanyahu won the elections and was recently invited to form a government by President Issac Herzog. (Source)
- The young ultra-Orthodox population in Israel is increasingly involved in this election with the majority supporting Ben Gvir. (Source)
- The pre-election analysis predicts roughly 40% of the Arab population will take part in the election. (Source)
KJ-3: It is likely that despite increased violence inside their borders, Israel will try to improve its relations with border states throughout the next 6 months.
- Lebanon and Israel signed a treaty on the 27th of October 2022, finalising a maritime demarcation deal to allow energy exploration despite being historic enemies. (Source)
- From an optical standpoint, the Lebanon-Israeli maritime deal is an attempt at improved economic relations between the two nations. (Source)
- The leader of Hezbollah (an Iranian-backed Lebanese paramilitary group) announced the end of his group’s mobilisation on the 27th of October 2022. (Source)
- Israel and Turkey are restoring diplomatic relations through their defence ministries. (Source)
- President Erdogan claimed he wants to maintain Israeli ties no matter who wins the Israel elections. (Source)
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: 15th of November 2022