Executive Summary

Lebanon is facing a severe crisis amid ongoing regional instability with frequent Israeli strikes continuing across the south, which Israel claims to be part of its campaign against Hezbollah. Israeli strikes have killed over 4,000 Lebanese as part of this campaign, and at least 32 Israeli soldiers and four Israeli civilians by Hezbollah. The situation escalated following wider regional tensions in March 2026, with ceasefire arrangements repeatedly breaking down since. [source] 

Israel’s documented unlawful use of chemical agents is highly likely to inflict long-term damage on Lebanon’s agricultural productivity, overall economy, and civilian welfare, consistent with scorched-earth tactics. Furthermore, there are indications that Israeli operations in southern Lebanon are likely intended to shape post-conflict conditions by establishing a permanent de facto security zone rather than solely achieving military defeat of Hezbollah. Current diplomatic initiatives are unlikely to secure a durable cessation of Israeli military operations in Lebanon in the next five months.

Key Judgements

KJ-1. Israel’s use of chemical agents is highly likely to inflict long-term damage on Lebanon’s agricultural productivity, overall economy, and civilian welfare, consistent with scorched-earth tactics.

1. Human Rights Watch verified Israeli use of white phosphorus strikes in at least 17 municipalities across southern Lebanon, including five populated residential areas. Customary International Humanitarian Law prohibits states from using white phosphorus that expose civilians. [source] 
2. Ahmad Baydoun, an architect and PhD researcher in the Netherlands, mapped approximately 250 white phosphorus incidents between October 2023 and November 2024. Baydoun found that 39% occurred in residential areas, 17% on agricultural land, and 44% in forests or open terrain, indicating impacts extending beyond military targets. [source, source] 
3. Human Rights Watch also noted that Israel has less harmful smoke alternatives, like the M150 smoke projectile. [source] 
4. According to the Lebanese non-profit Public Works Studio, researchers documented white phosphorus burning over 2,000 hectares of southern Lebanon. [source] 
5. Israel’s use of white phosphorus has contaminated vast tracts of Southern Lebanon’s farmland – an area producing nearly a quarter of the country’s fruit and about 40% of its olives. [source] 
6. Repeated white phosphorus strikes saturate soil with phosphoric acid and heavy metals, which “reduce microbial diversity” and deplete soil fertility. Additionally, unburned fragments can lie dormant and reignite when disturbed, opposing ongoing risks to farmers. [source, source] 
7. Lebanon’s Ministry of Health recorded 2,412 casualties between October 2023 and August 2024, with over 10% injured by white phosphorus. [source] 
8. Lebanon’s ongoing fiscal crisis and limited reconstruction capacity reduce its ability to remediate environmental damage and restore agricultural production, increasing the likelihood of prolonged impacts. [source]  
9. Diana Salloum, a researcher focused on Lebanon’s agricultural sector at the Beirut-based Synaps Network, told Al Jazeera, “I can tell you that these are agricultural lands, and not small agricultural lands, [which] means a large supply of food.” [source] 

KJ-2. Israeli operations in southern Lebanon are likely intended to establish a permanent de facto security zone, rather than simply defeat Hezbollah. 

1. President Netanyahu and other Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Katz and Finance Minister Smotrich, repeatedly stated that forces will remain in captured areas indefinitely as part of a permanent “security zone.” [source, source, source] 
2. Israeli operations have rendered large areas of southern Lebanon uninhabitable, displacing hundreds of thousands and leaving up to a quarter million Lebanese without documents proving identity and property ownership. [source] 
3. Israel has established a “yellow” line and an extensive buffer zone inside Southern Lebanon, following strategic patterns of Israeli annexation of Palestine and Syria. [source, source, source] 
4. Amnesty International documented deliberate destruction of civilian properties and agricultural lands across 24 municipalities even after areas had come under Israeli control, consistent with territorial clearing rather than active combat. [source] 
5. Satellite imagery shows Israel is constructing roads, earthworks and fortified positions inside southern Lebanon during ceasefires, with Israeli soldiers describing them as “permanent outposts” intended to be manned “for a long time.” [source]  
6. Pressure from within the Israeli governing coalition has supported retaining captured territory, if not pushing to extend and deepen control. [source, source] 
7. In June, Institute for Applied Geopolitics experts briefed Israeli operations as representing a “shift from limited border defence to a strategy of territorial control and deterrence…The operation’s scale and symbolism evoke Israel’s 1982 occupation, suggesting a potential reestablishment of a long-term security zone.”  [source] 
8. Israel’s “smokescreen” rationale for white phosphorus use has been widely doubted, particularly given the availability of less harmful alternatives. Some Lebanese experts argue it is part of a broader strategy to drive civilians out and render southern Lebanon uninhabitable. [source, source] 

KJ-3. Current diplomatic initiatives are unlikely to secure a durable cessation of Israeli military operations in Lebanon by November 2026. 

1. The parties stated negotiating positions are incompatible. Hezbollah continues to claim its core demand is a complete IDF withdrawal; Israel repeatedly states it intends to keep its forces there to preserve the ability to conduct future operations against perceived threats.
2. Additionally, demands for Hezbollah to disarm have been met with categorical refusal, characterising it as a “humiliation” and a “surrender.” [source, source, source, source, source] 
3. Previous ceasefire arrangements and de-escalation deals have failed to prevent continued hostilities, including the 2024 U.S. and France brokered ceasefire. [source, source] 
4. Israeli officials state they will continue strikes in Lebanon even “beyond the security zone” if threats from Hezbollah continue. Israel’s threat framing is broad, considering Israeli military spokesperson Maj. Doron Spielman stated that “every home in southern Lebanon, the Shiite homes, are command centres.” [source] 
5. Domestic political pressure from Israel’s governing coalition has reinforced support for a sustained military presence, with senior officials advocating expanded and tougher operations. The Israeli Defence minister outlines plans to destroy all homes and villages in the area “in accordance with the model in Gaza.” [source] 
6. Satellite imagery obtained by Middle East Eye shows Israeli construction of fortifications and infrastructure in southern Lebanon, indicating long-term positioning. [source] 
7. The U.S. Iran’s diplomatic track has sidelined the Lebanese government and excludes Israel and Hezbollah, the parties with veto power over violence, from direct participation. Lebanese officials, including President Joseph Aoun, have criticised the track by stating Tehran cannot negotiate on Lebanon’s behalf. [source, source] 
8. Israeli settlers have made blueprints for planned settlements inside southern Lebanon. Initially, this group was small and relatively unpopular. However, in the past few months, the idea is now a “broad and troubling consensus” with as of March, 63% of the Israeli population support the occupation of southern Lebanon.  [source, source, source] 

Statement on Analysis

We have moderate confidence in our judgments. The report draws on a range of reporting from credible international news organisations, United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) assessments, as well as other human rights and policy organisations. 

Given that the situation can change significantly from day to day, confidence in any forecast or assessment remains limited and subject to revision. Unless there is a meaningful change in core negotiating positions of the main parties, particularly Hezbollah‘s insistence on Israeli withdrawal and Israel’s state security requirements and operational freedom – it remains unlikely that diplomatic efforts will produce a durable and comprehensive cessation of hostilities in Lebanon. However, the assessment is sensitive to external pressure dynamics, especially from the United States. While public pressure from President Trump has not so far prevented continued Israeli strikes, differently conditioned U.S. responses may still influence the scale, duration or constraints of Israeli operations going forward. 

Intelligence Cut-off Date: 08 July 2026