China’s new addition to the world of air superiority fighters has its regional adversaries sitting on the edge of their seats. Compared to India’s admittedly advanced arsenal of Su-30MKIs and Rafales, the Chengdu J-20 has the added advantage of stealth characteristics. Observers last month clocked new J-20 units on deployment less than 100 miles from the Indian border. China is likely investing more of its military resources into this restive border region. On a parallel track, China has doubled the construction of dual-use villages along the Indian border [source]. While New Delhi and Beijing are a long way off from a hot, kinetic engagement in the Himalayas, we believe that both countries will persist in low-intensity sabre-rattling for the foreseeable future.
Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that China will prioritize grey zone measures against Indian interests in the Himalayas over direct physical confrontations.
Key Judgment 2. It is likely that India will counter Chinese military buildup in Tibet with increased investment into its own Air Force.
Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that Beijing will deploy additional air and ground assets into Tibet in the next 6 months.
| Name: Shigatse Peace Airport | Location: 29°21’00.2″N 89°18’01.4″E | Description: A view of Shigatse Peace Airport showing 5 J-20 and 4 J-10 aircraft nearby a KJ-500 AWACS. Further observations show at least (1) additional J-20 arriving and departing at the apron. |
| Name: Hasimara AFS | Location: 26°41’53″N, 89°22’08″E | Description: A view of Hasimara base from 2022 showing active construction of HAS, support hangars, and at least 1 Il-76. |
| Name: Hasimara AFS | Location: 26°41’53″N, 89°22’08″E | Description: A view of Hasimara base from 2022 indicating completed construction on a row of support hangars and ongoing construction on HAS. Additionally, a HAL Tejas is present. |
| Name: Hasimara AFS | Location: 26°41’53″N, 89°22’08″E | Description: Ongoing construction at the north end of the airbase indicates a newly laid tarmac spur servicing two subterranean HAS.Additionally, construction continues on additional HAS and revetments. |
| Name: Hasimara AFS | Location: 26°41’53″N, 89°22’08″E | Description: A close in view of construction developments at the HAS area of Hasimara AFS. |
| Name: PLA Base at Pangong Tso | Location: 33°44’55.97″N, 33°44’55.97″E | Description: A PLA military base on the shores of Pangong Tso. Satellite imagery indicates stockpiling of munitions and weaponry. Moreover, the presence of WZ-523 or WZ-551 APCs indicate regular patrols in the area. |
| Name: PLA Radar Installation at Pangong Tso | Location: 33°45’11.29″N, 78°57’30.36″E | Description: A newly constructed PLA radar installation at Pangong Tso. An additional construction site is present, indicating intention to expand the facility. |
| Name: Bridge Span over Pangong Tso | Location: 34 49’0.719 N, 77°3 25.086 E | Description: A bridge span over Pangong Tso built by the PLA. |
