Côte d’Ivoire remains one of the few Western allies in Francophone West Africa. Alassane Outtara, the current President, is yet to announce whether he will seek a 4th term in office in the 2025 elections. His re-election for a controversial 3rd term in 2020 resulted in significant political unrest; although he gained 94% of the vote, the opposition party boycotted the elections in protest to his continued presidency. The withdrawal of military junta-led Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS earlier this year has also significantly weakened regional stability. It may also impair counter-terrorism efforts across the porous borders in West Africa. Further political uncertainty in 2025 in Côte d’Ivoire could weaken the country’s security at this crucial time, and increase the risk of a southward spread of violent insurgency.

Key Judgment 1. President Outtara’s re-election would be highly likely to result in significant unrest in Côte d’Ivoire.

Key Judgment 2. Under Outtara’s presidency, Côte d’Ivoire’s relations with the military junta-led states are likely to be particularly strained.

Key Judgment 3. Côte d’Ivoire’s regional counter-terrorism efforts will likely result in closer links with China.