In January 2024, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso announced their “irrevocable and immediate” withdrawal from the regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). They stated that ECOWAS “under the influence of foreign powers, betraying its founding principles, has become a threat to its member states and its population”. Formed in 1975, the 15 nation bloc of ECOWAS was seen as West Africa’s top political and regional authority, aimed at promoting economic integration. When military juntas took control in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso in recent years, ECOWAS suspended all three countries and imposed heavy sanctions. These three states formed their own “Alliance of Sahel States” (AES) in 2023, and have now formed the Confederation of Sahel States (CES), further expanding their operational scope, and pledging to aid each other in case of armed rebellion or foreign intervention. (source)

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso force out Western influence, Russian influence in the Sahel will grow.

Key Judgment 2. It is likely that the West African states face a deteriorating security situation, and will face significant regional turbulence, associated with Islamist insurgence.

Key Judgment 3. It is likely that ECOWAS withdrawal will result in a longer transition back to civilian rule in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.