Post electoral Nigeria: A 6-Month forecast


    On 25 February 2023, more than 90 million citizens were called to the polls and elected Bola Tinubu as the new President. Although the elections and the counting process were carried out peacefully overall, the two principal opposition parties resorted to the Supreme Court demanding to repeat the elections.

    Besides, the most populous African country needs to face numerous overlapping security challenges. First, even if terrorist violence diminished in the Lake Chad area, political violence in 2022 continued to rise. This is mainly due to the intensification of herders-farmers conflicts, banditry and Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) separatist insurgency escalation.

    Additionally, Nigeria remains attractive for Transnational Organised Crime (TOC). In particular, the border area with Niger, the Lake Chad area and the Niger delta is its principal hubs. Finally, the difficult economic situation combined with regular climate disruptions (floods) could weaken social cohesion, thus fuelling unrest. 

    Key Judgement 1: Even though violence related to political parties rose in the last year in Nigeria, there is a realistic possibility that the political climate will remain overall peaceful over the next six months.

    Key Judgement 2: Political violence will highly likely remain consistent over the next six months due to terrorism (mainly north-east), TOC, separatism (mainly south-west) and communal conflict (mainly north-west).

    Key Judgement 3: The Nigerian government will highly likely struggle to tackle the economic and environmental issues over the next six months.

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    Samuele Minelli Zuffa
    Samuele Minelli Zuffa
    Samuele is an Italian international security and intelligence analyst. His main area of interest is Sub-Saharan Africa, where he focuses on climate-conflict nexus, asymmetric warfare untraditional security threats. He complements traditional research methods with Satellite Imagery and GIS investigation.

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