Russian Breakthrough in Kharkiv: A Situational Assessment

On 1 September, a Russian offensive successfully broke through a limited area of the frontlines in the Kharkiv Oblast. Since then, elements of the 15th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment and 1432nd Motorized Rifle Regiment pushed nearly 10km into Ukrainian-held territory. As of 12 September, only 6km separates Russian forces from the east bank of the Oskil River. The latest breakthrough in Ukrainian defensive lines in the Kharkiv Oblast is representative of the increasing pressures on UAF positions on the eastern front. As Russian forces press numerical advantages in Kharkiv, we examine the near-term implications of Russia’s prolonged assault on the embattled region.

KJ-1: The RAF is likely attempting to establish forward defensive lines along the River Oskil.

KJ-2: Russia will likely prioritize the capture of Pokrovsk over the next 3 months.

KJ-3: It is unlikely that Russian forces will advance past the Oskil in the next 3 months.