Executive Summary

Russia’s shadow war against Europe through covert action shows no signs of stopping. Moscow operatives are expanding their targets of opportunity beyond Russian expat political dissidents to include critical infrastructure to destabilize perceived enemies in Europe. These operations have a cyber component, including hacking and cyber sabotage, but their scope is more focused towards physical aggressions, including assassination, arson, and other physical sabotage.

Current indicators from different security services in Europe point to a significant increase in Russian covert operations. Among the trends is the growing manpower reported inside their Military Intelligence (GRU) during the last year. Furthermore, security officials also point to an evolving pattern of boldness and aggressiveness in the tactical aspects of the operations.

European and American security services are expected to further strengthen their counterintelligence measures against Russian covert action, with Germany and Poland at the front line of the issue. It is our assessment that these efforts will increase during this year as information agencies receive more budget and capacity to deal with the enhanced threat.