Though the Russian Federation’s military program in Syria has taken a backseat to its needs in the Russo-Ukrainian War, it shows no signs of withdrawing from the country. Russian airstrikes remain a constant feature of the conflict in Syria, alongside the presence of Iranian weapons and militants. However, Iran’s role in Syria has also slowed, but not ceased. Russian reliance on imports of drones from Iran has brought the two closer together, and yet in Syria, Russian-Iranian collaboration remains icy.
Key Judgement 1: Russia is likely to prioritise Turkish desires over Iranian desires. It is likely to form a Turkish-Syrian-Russian summit without strong Iranian influence in the next 12 months.
Key Judgement 2: Collaboration over sanctions evasions by Russia and Iran is highly likely to continue undeterred in the next 12 months, despite snubs in Syria.
Key Judgement 3: Russia and Iran are likely to continue devolving down aid to the Syrian government as both countries face greater issues.