On September 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, sparking debate and strategic uncertainty. This aims at deterring Western support for Ukraine and preventing authorisation of the use of long-range missiles in Russian territory. The doctrine suggests that any attack on Russia by a non-nuclear state, supported by a nuclear-armed state, would be seen as a “joint attack.” This announcement is part of Russia’s ongoing strategy to use nuclear rhetoric as a deterrent against Western military aid to Ukraine. Despite these threats, the U.S. and its allies remain committed to supporting Ukraine. This is seen in the continued military assistance and criticism of Russia’s statements as “irresponsible.” The situation highlights the complexities of the Kremlin’s communication strategies, using nuclear rhetoric to influence international relations. This approach maintains a delicate balance of power without crossing into actual nuclear conflict.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that the revised doctrine only intends to deter Western support for Ukraine, not to justify the use of nuclear weapons.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that these changes will not deter Western support for Ukraine.

Key Judgement 3. It is unlikely that Western countries will allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russian territory.