Executive Summary
The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz continues to test Europe’s energy and food security, but involvement will likely remain limited to de-escalation and regional defence. The disruptions have also raised issues with internal cohesion, a trend that very likely will accelerate absent Hormuz’s full reopening. Because of these vulnerabilities, European countries have voiced support for securing the Strait through coalition based cooperation, but they have yet to enact tangible aid, and we assess that a reluctance to engage in direct conflict will limit any roles. We expect to see Europe maintain a defensive posture, prioritising de-escalation and defending regional interests.