On 26 February, Hungary’s parliament is due to reconvene to ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO pending President Orban’s approval. The country remains the final NATO member state to approve Sweden’s membership but remains largely intransigent. In 2022, NATO signed the accession protocol for Sweden to join the alliance, which was quickly ratified by almost all member states. As it stands, Sweden has not yet received the requisite unanimous ratification to become an official member.

This report addresses prospects for Sweden in NATO, particularly Hungary’s stance towards Sweden accession. Not least, the international response from Western partners towards the latter’s insurgence, and the plight of Sweden’s Kurdish populations in light of Turkish appeasement through NATO.

Key Judgement 1. Despite Orban’s initial intransigence, Hungary will highly likely approve Sweden’s ascension ratification on 26 February.

Key Judgement 2. Western partners will likely pressure Hungary to ratify Sweden’s NATO bid by mid-2024 should Orban further delay voting beyond 26 February.

Key Judgement 3. Sweden’s sizeable Kurdish minority will likely perceive Sweden’s ascension to NATO as a form of Turkish appeasement.