On 25 March, Togo’s lawmakers adopted a new constitution, transitioning the country from a presidential to a parliamentary system. It will afford the National Assembly the power to elect the president for a single six-year term in lieu of the public.

The Union for Republic (UNIR) ruling party’s lawmakers predominantly proposed this change to Togo’s constitution. In contrast, the National Assembly poorly represents the country’s opposition, which boycotted the last legislative elections in 2018 and denounced ‘irregularities’ in the electoral census.

This constitutional reform comes less than a month before the next legislative elections. Now postponed, the elections were due to be held concurrently with regional elections, in which the opposition announced its participation. In 2019, members of the National Assembly revised the constitution to limit presidential terms to two. Conversely, it did not apply retrospectively, leaving President Faure Gnassingbe free to stand for the next two elections.

The analysis proffered here is that Togolese opposition parties will likely perceive UNIR’s constitutional reform as an attempt to prolong Gnassingbe’s rule. We also expect that the president’s perceived illegal seizure of power will incite internal unrest and accusations of state repression. All the while the country is facing an increase in terrorist incidence and extremist violence.

Key Judgement 1. Opposition parties will likely interpret Togo’s constitutional reform as a ploy by Gnassingbe to execute a seizure of power to prolong his government’s longevity.

Key Judgement 2. Gnassingbe’s perceived illegal seizure of power will likely incite internal unrest and accusations of state repression within the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3.  It is likely that Togo will incur an increase in terrorist incidence over the next 12 months.